So much — too much — of the narrative around the College Football Playoff this month has been about which teams didn’t get into the 12-team field.
Now, it’s time to actually turn the focus to the games and the teams that are playing, as first-round action kicks off Friday night with No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma followed by a full Saturday slate.
Let’s break down each game and make some predictions …
(All game times ET; all point spreads via ESPN Bet)
No. 9 Alabama (10-3) at No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2)
8 p.m. Friday on ABC, in Norman, Oklahoma
Among the selections by the CFP committee that riled up some fans was Alabama’s inclusion as a three-loss at-large team over 10-2 Notre Dame, with the Crimson Tide’s uninspiring 28-7 loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game being totally disregarded.
So if the Tide comes out flat again Friday night, there’s going to be a fresh wave of outcry for the snubbed Fighting Irish. That’s one subplot.
Then there’s all the noise surrounding Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, who is believed to be Michigan’s top target to replace fired Sherrone Moore. No matter how many times, or ways, DeBoer states that he’s not interested in any other job and is happy at Alabama, many don’t believe him. The fact that Michigan hasn’t moved on another coach yet (though there is plenty of buzz about its interest in Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham) suggests the Wolverines believe they still have a chance to sway DeBoer as well.
The Alabama fan base is already tepid toward DeBoer because he’s not Nick Saban, he went 9-4 in his first season in Tuscaloosa and has already lost three games this season — good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough for the Crimson Tide faithful.
If Alabama loses Friday night, DeBoer is going to be hearing it from the fans — and maybe hearing a pitch from Michigan on why Ann Arbor and the Big Ten is a better fit for him personally.
But didn’t we say it was time to talk about the actual games on the field?
Shifting the focus there, this is of course a rematch of one of the more impactful results from the entire college football regular season.
Oklahoma’s 23-21 win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa back on Nov. 15 stunned many and served as a signature win for fourth-year Sooners coach Brent Venables that propelled OU into the playoffs. It was the Crimson Tide’s sloppiest performance of the season.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson was one of the Heisman Trophy favorites at the time and had thrown just 1 interception all season before getting picked off by Oklahoma Eli Bowen, who returned it 87 yards for a momentum-swinging touchdown late in the first quarter.
Then Ryan Williams fumbled a punt return that Oklahoma recovered at the Alabama 31, setting up a two-play touchdown drive.
Alabama also had a 36-yard field goal blocked at the end of the first half, and Simpson fumbled on a sack at the end of the third quarter as Oklahoma recovered at the Alabama 28, setting up what would prove to be the decisive field goal.
So there’s two ways to look at that.
Either, Oklahoma needed three game-swinging turnovers and a blocked field goal to win by 2 points while managing just 212 offensive yards to Alabama’s 406.
Or, the Sooners’ defense — which ranks 7th nationally in points allowed (13.9 per game) and 9th in total defense (273.6 yards per game) — significantly disrupted Alabama while revealing the Tide’s biggest vulnerability (its middling offensive line), notching 4 sacks and holding the Tide to just 80 rushing yards on 2.4 yards per attempt.
Likely, it’s a little of both. Oklahoma’s defense is legit, as are Alabama’s struggles up front (which showed up again in that SEC championship game loss where the Tide finished with -3 rushing yards. But the Sooners also still needed everything to go right to win that game, and that’s hard thing to count on repeating.
Alabama running back Jam Miller (team-high 493 rushing yards, 3 TDs this season), who missed the SEC title game with a lower leg injury, was not on the team’s official injury report this week and looks ready to return, but he wasn’t a factor last time vs. Oklahoma with just 27 yards on 9 carries.
Oklahoma, meanwhile, will likely be without center Jake Maikkula, who was downgraded to questionable on the official Thursday injury report the team submitted.
Oklahoma is a 1.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 17
No. 10 Miami (10-2) at No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1)
12 p.m. Saturday on ABC/ESPN, in College Station, Texas
Ah yes, the other team stirring debate and divisiveness since the bracket was revealed …
Miami leapfrogging Notre Dame for the final CFP at-large spot will be talked about for years to come (along with Florida State’s snub in 2023) as one of the most polarizing playoff decisions.
No need to rehash all of that here, but like with Alabama, if the Hurricanes lose badly here Twitter might just burn to the ground.
The CFP committee has to be sweating this one a bit …
As for the matchup, Texas A&M was one of the final three unbeaten teams in college football before a 27-17 loss at Texas in its regular-season finale.
Like Miami, the Aggies’ best win came early in the season over Notre Dame (41-40 in South Bend). They also officially ended Brian Kelly’s tenure at LSU, beating the Tigers 49-25 in Baton Rouge to lead to Kelly’s prompt firing.
Dual-threat quarterback Marcel Reed leads Texas A&M with 2,932 passing yards, 25 TDs, 10 INTs and 466 rushing yards with 6 TDs.
He has a dynamic duo at receiver with KC Concepcion (57 catches for 886 yards and 9 TDs) and Mario Craver (52-825-4). Craver made headlines this week by signing a lucrative “contract extension” — yes, that’s the language of college football now.
Overall, Texas A&M is a top-20 team nationally on both sides of the ball, ranking 20th in total offense (454.4 YPG), 14th in scoring (36.3 PPG) and 19th in total defense (309.8 YPG) — but tied for 41st in points allowed (21.9 PPG).
The Aggies have already matched their highest win total since 1992 and are a program on the rise in coach Mike Elko’s second year, but has their momentum stalled? Texas A&M needed a historic rally after trailing 30-3 at home to South Carolina to get past the Gamecocks before that decisive loss to Texas two weeks later. Reed tossed 2 INTs in each of those games, and after getting stifled by Texas’ defense he and the Aggies now face another tough unit.
Texas A&M could get a boost if running back Le’Veon Moss (389 rushing yards, 6 TDs, 5.6 YPC) is able to play after missing the last six games with an ankle injury. He’s officially listed as questionable but was active to some degree at least in practice this week.
Miami, meanwhile, has all the momentum.
The Hurricanes lost to unranked Louisville and SMU teams in the middle of the season to put their playoff hopes in jeopardy, but they surged to the finish line with four straight wins by an average margin of 27.5 points to force the CFP committee into that controversial decision. With Miami and Notre Dame side by side in the rankings after buffer BYU got blown out in the Big 12 championship game, the Hurricanes’ Week 1 win over the Irish became the undeniable case for their playoff inclusion in that final at-large spot.
The Hurricanes are a real wildcard in this playoff now. They are a deeply talented team that was ranked as high as No. 2 in the country before its first loss and closed the season playing its best football, but coach Mario Cristobal has a history of late-season letdowns and getting too tight in big games. This is his first opportunity in the playoffs, though.
Quarterback Carson Beck is wildcard himself. A Heisman favorite early in the season he threw 4 INTS in that loss to Louisville and 2 in the loss to SMU, but overall the Georgia transfer completed 74.7 percent of his passes (second-best nationally) for 3,072 yards, 25 TDs and 10 INTs and had 11 TDs to 1 INT in that closing four-game winning streak.
Freshman Malachi Toney is one of the most dynamic players in college football with 84 catches for 970 yards and 7 TDs.
Miami is tied for 20th nationally with 34.1 PPG, 27th in total offense (425.8 YPG), 6th in scoring defense (13.8 PPG) and 11th in total defense (277.8 YPG).
Texas A&M is a 3.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Miami 28, Texas A&M 27
No. 11 Tulane (11-2) at No. 6 Ole Miss (11-1)
3:30 p.m. Saturday on TNT/HBO Max/truTV, in Oxford, Mississippi
Talk about off-field drama and distractions!
Ole Miss is enjoying its best season since the 1960s, but that wasn’t enough to keep head coach Lane Kiffin in Oxford as he bolted for the LSU job. Kiffin wanted to continue coaching the Rebels in the playoffs, but Ole Miss administrators were adamant that was not an option, so defensive coordinator Pete Golding was elevated to head coach — not just for the rest of this season but moving forward into the future.
So it’s anyone’s guess how the Rebels will look without Kiffin on the sideline — at least offensively.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. followed Kiffin to LSU, but he has remained with Ole Miss for its playoff run. The Rebels are second nationally in total offense (498.1 YPG) and tied for 10th in scoring (37.3 PPG), led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (3,016 passing yards, 18 TDs, 3 INTs, 470 rushing yards, 6 TDs) and running back Kewan Lacy (1,279 rushing yards, 20 rushing TDs — second-most in the FBS).
This game is another rematch as Ole Miss beat Tulane 45-10 back on Sept. 20 with Chambliss passing for 307 yards and 2 TDs and rushing for 112 yards.
It was a thoroughly one-sided game as Ole Miss put up 548 yards to Tulane’s 282 as Green Wave QB Jake Retzlaff had his worst game of the season (5 of 17 for 56 yards, 0 TDs).
Tulane made the playoff as the top-ranked Group of Five conference champion after winning the AAC. While it got blown out by Ole Miss, Tulane did beat two Power Four teams this season with a 23-3 win over Northwestern and a 34-27 win over eventual ACC champion Duke.
Retzlaff, a high-profile transfer from BYU, led the team in both passing (2,862 yards, 14 TDs, 6 INTs) and rushing (610 yards, 16 TDs).
Tulane coach Jon Sumrall was hired by Florida but has remained with the Green Wave for the playoffs.
While Tulane is the obvious underdog here, the Rebels are actually the team with everything to prove after the Kiffin saga.
Ole Miss is a 17.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Ole Miss 45, Tulane 24
No. 12 James Madison (12-1) at No. 5 Oregon (11-1)
7:30 p.m. Saturday on TNT/HBO Max/truTV, in Eugene, Oregon
Unlike college basketball where fans of all kinds band together to root for and celebrate underdogs, college football couldn’t be more different.
From casual fans to media critics, many have vented about two Group of Five teams making the 12-team playoff while the likes of Notre Dame, Texas and Vanderbilt got left out. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see changes to the playoff selection format come out of this, but the rules are the rules and for this year at least they mandated that the five highest-ranked conference champions got automatic berths into the CFP.
When a five-loss unranked Duke team won the ACC championship, that opened the door for James Madison to make it in as a second G5 team after winning the Sun Belt and climbing into the AP poll and CFP rankings.
JMU’s reward is a trip to one of the toughest road venues in college football and a matchup with one of the most talented teams in the country.
Oregon’s only loss was to now-No. 1 and unbeaten Indiana. Otherwise, the Ducks delivered week after week with their best wins coming over USC (42-27), Iowa (18-16 on the road) and Penn State (30-24 in double-overtime on the road before the Nittany Lions’ season imploded).
Quarterback Dante Moore had a breakout season in his first year as the Ducks’ starter, passing for 2,733 yards, 24 TDs and 6 INTs, while Kenyon Sadiq (40 catches for 490 yards and 8 TDs) is one of the best tight ends in college football.
The Ducks spread it around in the backfield with four backs with Noah Whittington (774 yards, 6.9 YPC, 6 TDs), Jordon Davison (535, 6.1 YPC, 13 TDs) and Dierre Hill Jr. (481 yards, 8.2 YPC, 4 TDs).
Notable on Oregon’s official injury report, wide receivers Evan Stewart (out all season with a torn patellar tendon), Gary Bryant Jr. (ankle, out since Nov. 8) and Dakorien Moore (knee, out since Oct. 25) were all listed as questionable, leaving open the possibility they could be available.
James Madison is led by QB Alonza Barnett III, who has 2,533 passing yards, 25 TDs and 8 INTs plus 544 rushing yards and 14 scores on the ground.
JMU running back Wayne Knight has rushed for 1,263 yards and 9 TDs on 6.6 YPC.
The Dukes rank second nationally in total defense (247.6 YPG) and 10th in scoring defense (15.8 PPG), but in their only game against a P4 opponent this season they lost 28-14 at Louisville.
Coach Bob Chesney has been hired at UCLA’s new head coach, but he has remained with JMU for the playoffs.
Oregon is a 20.5-point favorite.
Prediction: Oregon 31, James Madison 10
