The NFL teams everybody wants to believe in — including the oddsmakers in Las Vegas — keep stumbling while the ones most remain hesitant to take for real keep winning.
Is it a true changing-of-the-guard season in the league?
Eh, let’s see what happens the rest of the way, but it’s getting harder and harder to deny what the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears are doing and even tougher to keep believing the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions are going to figure things out.
Before we turn the focus to another week of storylines and surprises, let’s look back on the winners and losers across the league in Week 13.
NFL Week 13 Winners
Ben Johnson
Ben Johnson isn’t just the coach of the NFC North leaders but he’s also now a meme for his latest viral locker room celebration after the Chicago Bears’ 24-15 win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week.
He’d also be a lock for NFL Coach of the Year if not for Mike Vrabel in New England making it a real competition.
The bottom line, though, is Johnson is the real deal. He was the most coveted coach on the market last year after his work as offensive coordinator in Detroit, and he’s showing why as the Lions flounder without him while the Bears go from 5-12 to 9-3 and NFC contender in one year with him.
Chicago has won five in a row and nine of its last 10 games.
How bout them Cowboys?
Dallas was 3-5-1 and got manhandled by the lowly Arizona Cardinals at home on Monday Night Football. This season was kaput.
And then …
A well-timed bye week, two trades to bolster the defense (DT Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson), the return of injured LB DeMarvion Overshown and suddenly the Cowboys are one of the hottest teams in the NFL.
Dallas has won three straight, including statement wins over the Eagles and Chiefs the last two weeks to get to 6-5-1 and in the thick of the playoff picture heading into a showdown in Detroit on Thursday night.
All the Cowboys ever needed was just a league average defense to complement one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, and for three weeks at least they’ve had it.
There must be something in the water in Texas
Across the state, the Houston Texans are doing the same thing but with a reverse narrative.
The Texans have the NFL’s best defense and have all season — they just needed some help from the other side of the ball.
After a 3-5 start, Houston has won four straight (three with backup QB Davis Mills and then a pivotal 20-16 road win over the Colts in C.J. Stroud’s return from a concussion).
Only three opponents all season have mustered 20 points against the Texans (the Buccaneers, Seahawks and Jaguars) as they lead the NFL in points allowed (16.5 per game) and total defense (265.7 yards per game).
Houston is now 7-5 and just a game behind the Jaguars and Colts in the AFC South, with a season split against Jacksonville and a win over Indianapolis in the teams’ first meeting.
And nobody wants to face the Texans in a first-round playoff game.
Patriots, Panthers, Packers’ pivot and Payton’s lucky horseshoe
That’s right, it’s time for an alliteration speed round.
As noted, the only thing keeping Ben Johnson from receiving the NFL Coach of the Year award right now is the job Mike Vrabel’s doing in his first season leading New England.
The 11-2 Patriots have won 10 in a row after going 4-13 last year.
(We could rattle off all the bad quarterbacks New England has beaten in that win streak, or we could just remind you that they also beat the Bills and have a chance to lock up the AFC East next week after a bye when they host Buffalo.)
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One of our favorite subplots of this NFL season remains the Carolina Panthers’ absolute commitment to being impossible to bet on or against.
A roulette wheel offers a better chance at success than trying to figure out what the Panthers are going to do each week.
They’ve now alternated wins and losses for seven straight weeks with victories over the Packers and Rams in that stretch and losses to the Bills, Saints and 49ers in which they scored 9 or fewer points.
Bryce Young is either setting the Panthers’ franchise passing record (448 yards in a win over the Falcons) and going 15 of 20 for 206 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTS vs. the mighty Rams, or he’s passing for 124 yards and an interception vs. the Saints and 169 and 2 INTs vs. the 49ers.
Somehow this team is 7-6 and a half game back in the NFC South.
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For much of this season, Green Bay looked like the most overhyped team in the NFL, but the last two weeks have been a different story.
Dominating the J.J. McCarthy-led Vikings (23-6) was one thing, but the Packers’ 31-24 win over the Lions on Thanksgiving could prove to be a true turning point.
Jordan Love had his best game of the season (234 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs), and while the raw numbers (24 points, 352 yards allowed) weren’t special, the eye test again showed this Packers defense is built for the postseason.
(The advanced analytics back that up as well.)
Green Bay (8-3-1) plays at Chicago (9-1) this week in the game of the weekend and a massive NFC North clash.
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Just accept it at this point. No matter who it’s playing — be it the Eagles or Chiefs, or the Raiders or Commanders — Denver is winning by a narrow margin somehow, someway.
Sean Payton’s 10-2 Broncos have won nine in a row, and their 27-26 overtime win over Washington last week was their fourth straight decided by 3 or less points. Overall, seven of those nine wins have been by 4 points or less.
This is just how Denver does it.
Welcome back Joe Burrow
Can the Bengals really rally from 3-8 and make the playoffs?
Don’t be silly. They still have the worst defense in the NFL, but they’re suddenly interesting again with star QB Joe Burrow back.
Burrow threw for a modest 261 yards and 2 TDs, but something sure felt different for Cincinnati in its 32-14 win over the Ravens.
Is Mike McDaniel saving his job?
At 1-6 after a 25-point loss to the Cleveland Browns, Miami coach Mike McDaniel looked like a sure bet to be the next coach fired.
Instead, he’s led the Dolphins to four wins in their last five games (including a 21-17 win over the Saints last week) as they’ve battled back to 5-7 with games against the Jets, Steelers and Bengals the next three weeks.
It’s not out of the question this team finishes with a winning record. Wild.
NFL Week 13 Losers
Clock ticking on Mike Tomlin Era in Pittsburgh
Mike Tomlin has been the Pittsburgh Steelers’ head coach for 19 seasons now. That’s more than Bill Cowher (15) and not far off from Chuck Noll (23).
But more than ever, it’s looking like the end could be near. Even his former star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger made that suggestion this week.
Tomlin’s remarkable run of never having a losing season is in jeopardy as the Steelers dropped to 6-6 after a 26-7 loss to the Bills last week — their fifth defeat in seven games. They close the schedule with two games vs. the Ravens and games with the Dolphins, Lions and Browns, so it could go either way.
But at best, this is still a middle of the pack team with no QB plan for the future.
Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been the answer, like Justin Fields/Russell Wilson weren’t the answer last year.
So where is this team going? The Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016 and may not even make it to the postseason this year.
All good things come to an end.
Kevin Patullo
Kevin Patullo is in a rough spot — that spot is Philadelphia.
Eagles fans have earned the reputation as one of the toughest in sports, and watching a Super Bowl-winning team unravel this year hasn’t gone over well.
Patullo, who took over as offensive coordinator this year when Kellen Moore left to become the Saints’ head coach, had his house egged after another dismal performance by his offense in a 24-15 loss to the Bears.
The Eagles are still 8-4 and atop the NFC East, but they’re averaging 15.5 points over their last four games and have scored just 15 total over their last six quarters in back-to-back losses to the Cowboys and Bears.
They rank 24th in the league in total offense (304.8 YPG) and 19th in scoring (22.5 PPG) after ranking seventh in scoring and eighth in yards last season.
With all the same offensive skill talent back from the Super Bowl team, it’s hard not to put the blame squarely on Patullo, who is a first-time OC after serving as the team’s passing game coordinator the last four years.
Running QBs who no longer want to run
Part of the problem for Philadelphia is that QB Jalen Hurts is no longer using his running ability as a weapon, and that changes how defenses play the Eagles entirely.
Hurts rushed for at least 600 yards in each of the last four seasons ranging between 139 and 165 rushing attempts. Through 12 games this year, he’s rushed 84 times for 329 yards.
Meanwhile, the Baltimore Ravens are in the same spot with QB Lamar Jackson, who has not been the same dual-threat force since returning from the hamstring injury that sidelined him early in the season.
Jackson has never rushed for fewer than 695 yards in a season, even topping that mark in 2021 and 2022 when he was limited to just 12 games each of those years.
This season? He’s rushed for 264 yards in nine games. Since returning from the injury, Jackson has rushed for 14, 36, 10, 11 and 27 yards in five games.
And the Ravens just don’t look right offensively as a result.
Jackson also did not practice Thursday ahead of Baltimore’s rivalry clash with Pittsburgh while managing an ankle injury, so that’s something to monitor as well.
Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah had been regarded as one of the better general managers in football, taking over in Minnesota in 2022 and building a balanced and talented Vikings roster that won 14 games last year.
But outside of ousted ignominious former Dallas Mavericks GM Nico Harrison and his colossal blunder of trading star Luka Doncic to the Lakers last spring, Adofo-Mensah might be next on the list of professional sports GMs making absolutely head-scratching decisions in recent years.
First, Adofo-Mensah and the Vikings used the No. 10 overall draft pick on a quarterback in J.J. McCarthy who was essentially a “game manager” for a Michigan team that leaned on its dynamic rushing attack and defense to win a national championship.
McCarthy was considered a “winner” and strong leader, which is all well and good, but he threw for less than 200 yards a game (196.9) over two seasons as a starter and attempted just over 22 passes a game his final season with the Wolverines. In the biggest game of his career — the national championship win over Washington — McCarthy was 10-of-18 passing for 140 yards and 0 TDs. (Yes, he was good in the semifinals against Alabama).
And the Vikings took him 10th overall in the draft!
OK, well they surely scouted him more closely than anyone so they must have seen something to be convinced he could be a franchise NFL QB. That’s only half of the mistake here.
Coming off 14 wins and a fantastic overall season from QB Sam Darnold, even if it finished on a down note the final two games, what’s the rush to let him leave (for Seattle) and turn the keys over to McCarthy in his second year after missing his rookie season due to knee surgery? This is team expected to be a top contender in the NFC — not a rebuilding team needing to get its young QB reps.
That’s still not the entirety of the problem, though.
Even if the Vikings were convinced McCarthy was a future star and was ready to lead a playoff-caliber team this year, how do they not build a better QB depth chart behind him?!
Carson Wentz was serviceable at best before a season-ending injury, and then undrafted rookie Max Brosmer rounded out the QB room. Meanwhile, the lowly Giants somehow have Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on their bench! The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco when they had a need after Joe Burrow’s injury.
Adofo-Mensah saw a QB room of McCarthy (by far the worst starting QB in the league this year) and Brosmer (who passed for 126 yards, 0 TDs and 4 INTs in his debut last week) and decided to ride it out.
It’s mind-boggling mismanagement and has doomed a talented team that otherwise should be in the thick of a wide-open Super Bowl race. Instead, the Vikings are 4-8 as they turn back to McCarthy (929 passing yards, 6 TDs, 10 INTs) this week.
Super Bowl favorites in danger of missing the playoffs entirely
For much of this season, the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions were considered among the top favorites to win the Super Bowl (with the Chiefs being the betting favorite for most of this season despite their struggles).
But now it’s a real possibility neither even makes the playoffs.
The Chiefs are 6-6, third in the AFC West, have lost three of their last four games after falling to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and may need to win out to make the playoffs.
The Lions are 7-5, third in the NFC North, have lost four of their last seven games and have a thin margin for error with remaining games against the Cowboys (this Thursday night), Rams, Steelers, Vikings and Bears.
