TeamFB7 brings the fun…and controversy!…of the weekly College Football Playoff rankings to the NFL postseason in time for Thanksgiving.
If you’ve ever dreamed of bringing the drama, controversy … and, sure, the silliness … of the College Football Playoff rankings to the NFL level, consider starting your holiday season on an appropriately thankful note.
The NFL postseason is sorted by the conventional … and effective, at least for a league 32 teams … numerical method with the occasional tiebreaker. But what if the CFP committee made its way to the pros?
TeamFB7 theorizes such a scenario below, attempting to envision a realistic bracket based on what we’ve seen since the CFP was introduced in 2014. Only the most elite division winners, essentially serving as mini-college conferences in this exercise are granted automatic entry, much like the current edition of the CFP. AFC/NFC loyalties were not considered, opening up the possibility to an uneven team distribution. Our rankings will feature 14 teams, much like the real NFL bracket, to maintain consistency.
Remember, if your team is in it, then of course these rankings can be taken serious. If not, lighten up, this isn’t how the NFL decides it … for now.
Without further ado …
1. Los Angeles Rams (9-2)
The Rams would fit the criteria for the committee’s favorite and then some: they play in a tough division, have beaten six other teams on this list (including one, funnily enough, on neutral turf…a 35-7 shellacking of Jacksonville in London), and work in an attractive market. That head-to-head loss to the Eagles looms large in both this exercise and reality but a manageable schedule from here on out should give them a fairly comfortable position in either case.
2. Denver Broncos (9-2)
Denver is another team that benefits from a head-to-head tiebreaker falling by the wayside … for now. The Broncos benefit in absentia on this list. An eight-game winning streak, however, does carry a significant bit of weight, even if some of the results (i.e. single-possession wins over Tennessee, Houston, Las Vegas, and both New York teams) leave plenty to be desired. The Broncos would also reap in the advantages of playing in a good division, as the AFC West’s top three could make up almost half of the real AFC bracket.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-3)
The Colts probably would’ve topped this list if we started such a rankings earlier in the season. But this brutal three-week stretch would likely be frowned upon: falling in overtime to the Chiefs (more on them in a minute) is still understandable, but falling to the reeling Pittsburgh Steelers and needing an extra period to beat the woebegone Falcons would not be so. Still, there’s no need to let Indianapolis’ early work go to waste, especially when wins over Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers, as well as a decent lead in a competitive division, are factored in.
4. Philadelphia Eagles (8-3)
Such a similar condolence will likely do little to appease the Eagles’ … let’s just say passionate … fanbase. But if we started this exercise last week, the Eagles would’ve been at the top. Preference to the defending champions is an unspoken, if not apparent, tradition of the CFP rankings but the Eagles have rendered that mostly irrelevant with wins over the Chiefs, Rams, and Packers. Alas, Sunday’s disaster vs. Dallas (and even some of their closer victories) wouldn’t be looked upon kindly by the committee, nor would their weak division that’s essentially already wrapped. Getting doubled-up by the Giants in primetime also continues to age as poorly as Michael Carter-Williams forecasts stashed at the nearby 76ers facility, but there’s plenty of opportunity for Brotherly Love advancement this holiday season.
5. New England Patriots (10-2)
How is the one 10-win team in football stationed this low? While the hypothetical committee wouldn’t give the Patriots the 2023 Florida State treatment because of their medical woes on the offensive line (rookie standout Will Campbell has been placed on injured reserve), the current ledger may inspire it to label them the Group of Five champion on this list. Heck, the Patriots’ ultimate undoing may be far from their control: they deserve the utmost credit for handling business against Buffalo and Tampa Bay, but neither of those teams were willing to cooperate in primetime this week. The best thing New England can do is handle its business, at this point, and they’ll get prime opportunities to strut their stuff when they face Buffalo and Baltimore immediately out of their bye (after a Monday nighter with the hapless Giants).
6. San Francisco 49ers (8-4)
Does it just “mean more” in the NFC West? That’s up to you to decide, but the division is also making its case to be the NFL’s SEC. Fresh off a primetime win that kicked the Carolina Panthers out of these rankings, San Francisco gets bye with a good bit of its early work, featuring wins over divisional brethren Los Angeles and Seattle. Playing in the West and managing the damage (the most egregious mark here is a Brock Purdy-less defeat to Houston) allows the Niners to keep this top-six ranking,
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
Discounting championship weekend and other special cases, (i.e. Notre Dame’s independent status), the real College Football Playoff rarely has to deal with the number of games played being any sort of significant factor. The half-game difference makes it just enough for the 49ers to edge out the Seahawks, who have otherwise kept their beaks clean, even in defeat (falling to only San Francisco, Tampa Bay, and the Los Angeles Rams by a combined nine points. The extra game that the Seahawks have in hand (completed next week with the Niners on bye) beautifies their mark for now and there’s ample opportunity to keep rising.
8. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
While everything about Jacksonville screams G5 and they’ve proven to be particularly frustrating, there’s no denying their strength of victory. They weren’t able to hang with the the penthouse residents (stymied offensive by Seattle and demolished by Los Angeles overseas), but they have victories over the Chargers and Chiefs to give them a distinct advantage in both reality and the hypotheticals, provided the committee would be willing to overlook their supposed small market nature.
9. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
The Bills are another team stung by recency bias: falling to the Texans (a team that would be among the “first four out” in an exercise such as this) would perhaps be forgivable, but defeats to Atlanta and Miami — both by double figures — are particularly ugly and would cost the Bills a home game on the hypothetical early bracket. Christmas gifts do linger under the Bills’ tree, as a rematch with the Patriots and an intraconference get-together with Philadelphia would go a long way in re-establishing their national panache.
10. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4)
No team in football, be it on the professional or collegiate level, may be more frustrating or hard to read than the modern Chargers: they’re another team that’s getting by on their early work in this exercise, particularly the September triumphs over Kansas City and Denver, as well as the fact they play in a dangerous division. We’ll be able to learn a lot more about the Chargers this holiday season: following their bye — heck, a relative double considering the Raiders reside in the immediate slot after — LA finishes with Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas, Houston, and Denver. Success there could move them up this list … failure could remove them entirely.
11. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)
We now come to the more controversial portions of this experiment: meet its Alabama. No matter what losses appear on the Crimson Tide’s resume (one of its latest being an increasingly bizarre opening week defeat to feckless Florida State), they always appear to be lingering the playoff discussion. The same could be said for the NFL’s modern crimson tide, as the Chiefs are back in the playoff discussion after an overtime victory over their would-be usurpers from Indianapolis. It’s no secret that the committee appears to appreciate certain teams “lucking” their way into a playoff spot. The Chiefs are no doubt the NFL’s edition, but they’re starting to trend in the right direction at an ideal time as well.
12. Chicago Bears (8-3)
It’s so hard to figure out what to do with the NFC North: on paper, it should get the “dangerous division” label that both Wests have, but a deeper look at each slate shows that their best victories have come against each other. This spot seems right for the division-leading Bears: they’ve handled their business and have mostly avoided embarrassing losses (if the real committee can forget Alabama’s Week 1 loss to FSU, this fantasy one can forget the debut loss to the Minnesota Vikings) but still lack a truly impressive win. They can thus enjoy this (fake) playoff spot which grants them entry, but not a home game.
13. Green Bay Packers (7-3-1)
The North’s relative prowess over what’s transpired in the AFC North (mediocre Ravens and Steelers teams duking it out at 6-5) and NFC South (Tampa barely beating a Carolina team that feels not ready for prime time) made it difficult to limit them to but one participant. While the Packers have made it difficult for reasons both within (losing to the Browns, Panthers, and Eagles and the infamous primetime tie with the mediocre Cowboys) and beyond (the NFL packing … pun intended … their meetings with the Bears into two December weeks), their Week 1 win over the Lions allows them to secure the penultimate spot in our rankings.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5)
We avoided it for the Patriots, but the dark 2023 Florida State privilege goes to the Baltimore Ravens: yes, the current AFC North leaders are on the upswing, but a hypothetical committee would likely be wary of Lamar Jackson’s health just as it was of that of Jordan Travis two years ago. If we’re leaving one division leader off, Tampa Bay escapes doomsday … barely. Like their teal Floridian counterparts, the Buccaneers have earned a couple of significant victories that go a long way, namely wins over West titans Seattle and San Francisco. They are, however, teetering on the plank after three straight losses and well could’ve been off this list in favor of Baltimore and/or Carolina had the latter not fallen on Monday night. The Ravens, while surging, failed to earn a signature victory early on, but that could change as trees go up and menorahs are lit.
Geoff Magliocchetti is on X @GeoffJMags