The only rankings that truly matter this time of year are the official College Football Playoff rankings, as set by the selection committee and unveiled each Tuesday night.
They provide the true perspective on how the people in that room — a collection of former coaches, current athletic directors, a former player and one longtime college football writer who will ultimately set the 12-team playoff bracket — truly view these teams.
So while we were able to connect the dots to some degree based on the results from the weekend, now we have the committee’s latest perspective just a few weeks before they formally set the 12-team field.
Here is what stands out.
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– The top three remains predictably unchanged as No. 1 Ohio State (10-0), No. 2 Indiana (11-0) and No. 3 Texas A&M (10-0) remain the lone unbeaten teams in college football.
– Georgia (9-1) had one of the big wins of the week — 35-10 over Texas — but had only one spot to move up, taking over at No. 4. No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1), No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1) and No. 7 Oregon (9-1) also moved up one spot with Alabama (8-2) tumbling from No. 4 to No. 10. (More on the Crimson Tide in a moment).
Oklahoma Makes Biggest Surge In CFP Rankings
– Oklahoma (8-2) tied for the biggest gain of the week, climbing three spots to No. 8, while leaping over Notre Dame (8-2), which stayed at No. 9. The Sooners had the biggest win Saturday, upsetting Alabama, 23-21, in Tuscaloosa, so this feels right. The Fighting Irish actually scored one of its biggest wins of the season as well, 37-15 over then-No. 22 Pittsburgh, but it doesn’t have a signature win to that level so the Sooners deserved to move ahead.
Alabama Punished For Early Loss To Florida State
– The more interesting decision was dropping Alabama (8-2) to No. 10, behind the Irish. The Crimson Tide has four wins over ranked teams, including a road win at Georgia. Notre Dame’s only win over a still-ranked opponent was No. 15 USC. The difference is in each team’s losses. The Tide is still being punished for its Week 1 loss to Florida State and perhaps the recency of the loss to Oklahoma, while Notre Dame’s losses to Miami (13) and Texas A&M (3) came early in Weeks 1-2.
CFP chair Hunter Yurachek explained the committee’s reasoning.
– No. 11 BYU (9-1) and No. 12 Utah (8-2) both moved up one spot as a result of Texas (7-3) tumbling from No. 10 to No. 17.
Miami An Interesting Case In CFP Rankings
– The next interesting decision comes at No. 13, where Miami (8-2) moved up two spots to leapfrog No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2). The Hurricanes beat middling NC State 41-17 while the Commodores were on a bye, which shouldn’t have provided any new metrics to reevaluate the two teams’ standing. That isn’t the point that raised questions, though.
Even though Miami has been behind Notre Dame since taking its second loss of the season a few weeks ago to SMU, the question was posed to Yurachek on Tuesday night as to why, considering they have the same record and the Hurricanes beat the Fighting Irish head-to-head in Week 1 (27-24).
Yurachek essentially said that Miami and Notre Dame aren’t viewed in the same tier at the moment, so the head-to-head result didn’t factor in. He said the committee viewed Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Alabama in a tier and debated the rankings of those three from 8-10. “If Miami and Notre Dame are in a comparable tier, comparable range, the head-to-head will be a significant data point that we will use.”
That response has received plenty of flak, but honestly, it makes sense. Head-to-head isn’t everything. Texas can’t be ranked above Oklahoma just because it won head-to-head, for instance. Notre Dame lost to two teams presently ranked in the top 13 and has won eight straight since then, all by double-digits, with two ranked wins and an impressive 49-10 win over 8-2 Navy as well. Miami lost at home to then-unranked (and now unranked again) Louisville and unranked SMU.
The decision and rationale are fair — if the two resumes were otherwise equal then the head-to-head result would be a differentiator.
Again, more interesting to us is Miami moving ahead of Vanderbilt. Both teams have low odds of receiving an at-large berth, but if there is attrition higher in the rankings it could come down to a decision between those two teams.
USC Slips Past Georgia Tech
USC (8-2) moved up two spots to No. 15, while Georgia Tech (9-1) stayed put at No. 16.
No arguments here.
The Yellow Jackets are a nice story, but their best wins are over 5-5 Clemson and 5-5 Duke while they lost to 5-5 NC State (48-36) and then barely got past 1-10 Boston College (36-34) this week.
USC, meanwhile, just beat then-No. 21 Iowa, 26-21, has a lopsided win over Michigan (now No. 18) and took its two losses on the road at Notre Dame and by two points on the road at a then-ranked Illinois.
Texas Sits as Highest Ranked Three-Loss Team
Texas did drop seven spots to No. 17 with its 35-10 loss to Georgia, but it remained ranked ahead of two-loss teams in No. 18 Michigan (8-2) and No. 19 Virginia (9-2).
We don’t think the Wolverines nor the Cavaliers are especially great teams, but neither is Texas, which continues to get extra respect based on its preseason No. 1 ranking. The Longhorns had the nice win over Oklahoma, which continues to look better and better, and also beat Vanderbilt (despite nearly blowing it late). But they lost to Florida, needed overtime to beat Kentucky and Mississippi State and just got blown out by Georgia.
Ultimately, it’s all moot this far down the rankings. Virginia has to win the ACC to make the playoffs regardless of where it is ranked relative to Texas, and Michigan probably has to win the Big Ten, though if it beats No. 1 Ohio State in two weeks it will surge up the rankings anyway and be freshly evaluated for potential at-large berth consideration.
Three other three-loss teams follow with No. 20 Tennessee (7-3), No. 21 Illinois (7-3) and No. 22 Missouri (7-3). Don’t get us started on the over-ranked Vols, though it ultimately doesn’t matter this far down the rankings. None of those teams has any path to a playoff berth.
Houston (8-2) at No. 23 is next. The Cougars may deserve to be ranked ahead of one of those three-loss teams, but again, it’s irrelevant ultimately.
Tulane Ranked Highest Among Group of Five
Our final notable ranking decision is Tulane (8-2) being the only Group of Five team to make the rankings at No. 24.
This is significant as the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion gets an automatic berth onto the CFP bracket.
Now, Tulane still has to win the AAC, and that’s no given with North Texas and Navy the top challengers.
The CFP decision on Tulane, though, is interesting for two reasons.
First, the AP voters ranked North Texas (9-1) at No. 22 and Tulane at No. 24. The CFP committee seems to be giving Tulane credit for scheduling three Power Four opponents — beating Northwestern and Duke and losing to Ole Miss — while also having a notable win over one-time AAC favorite Memphis. The Green Wave does have a head-scratching 48-26 loss to UTSA.
North Texas’ lone loss was to then-ranked South Florida, but it was a 63-36 blowout. The Mean Green’s best wins are over Navy (31-17) and Washington State (59-10).
Giving Tulane the nod is the right call, though its likely these two teams meet in the AAC championship game and decide things there.
The second reason Tulane’s ranking is notable is that the AP voters put Sun Belt favorite James Madison (9-1) as the highest-ranked Group of Five team at No. 21.
The CFP committee got it right valuing the AAC over the Sun Belt. James Madison has only beaten one opponent with a winning record (Old Dominion).