Last week, Tennessee, Iowa and Washington saw their College Football Playoff hopes extinguished while teams like Virginia and Louisville had theirs severely diminished.
The wreckage will continue throughout November as the field of potential playoff teams narrows more and more by the week.
Week 12 of the college football season is highlighted by four matchups between top-25 teams that will greatly shakeup the CFP rankings however they end up, while we’re putting another top-12 team on upset alert against an unranked opponent.
Here are the five college football games you won’t want to miss Saturday.
(All game times ET; all point spreads from ESPN Bet)
No. 10 Texas (7-2, 4-1 SEC) at No. 5 Georgia (8-1, 6-1)
7:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC
It may feel like these two teams have had completely different seasons, but that’s not really the case.
Texas has had the dramatic swings, going from preseason No. 1 to totally out of the rankings and now all the way back to the top 10, and the scrutiny paid to Longhorns QB Arch Manning’s individual rollercoaster of a season has magnified the chaos.
Georgia has lived on the edge of good this fall too, though.
The Bulldogs needed a missed field goal and then overtime to get past Tennessee, lost at home to Alabama, were about to be down 17-0 vs. Auburn before a controversial goal-line fumble call swung the momentum late in the first half, and they trailed for most of the fourth quarter against Florida before again rallying.
The point being, Georgia may be 8-1 and No. 5 in the CFP rankings, but this team hasn’t measured up to Kirby Smart’s best Bulldogs teams.
Nonetheless, they’ve ultimately been less volatile than Texas and enter this pivotal SEC showdown as 6.5-point favorites.
The Longhorns are playing for their season. It’s pretty simple — win out with two top-five opponents left (also No. 3 Texas A&M) and Texas is assured of a spot in the 12-team CFP field. Lose at any point and it’s over — no three-loss team earned an at-large playoff berth last year and the SEC will have a glut of one- and two-loss teams hoping to all get in.
Georgia can weather a loss here, but it could make things more tense the rest of the way with a big game against Georgia Tech still to come.
No. 11 Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (8-1, 6-0)
3:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC
Oklahoma is also playing for its season Saturday, as a third loss would firmly knock it out of CFP contention.
But an upset over the Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa would put the Sooners in an excellent position for a true breakthrough in coach Brent Venables’ fourth season. They close with Missouri (down to its backup QB) and reeling LSU at home and would be a playoff lock at 10-2 with road wins over Tennessee and Alabama (hypothetically!) and a home win over Michigan.
The key word there is, of course, hypothetically.
Alabama has ripped off eight straight wins, including four over ranked SEC opponents, and looks to have as good a shot at going all the way as any contender.
QB Ty Simpson (2,461 yards, 21 TDs and 1 INT) is also one of the top three Heisman Trophy contenders, looking to make another statement in that race with Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza generating the most buzz of late.
Alabama is a 6.5-point favorite.
No. 9 Notre Dame (7-2) at No. 22 Pittsburgh (7-2)
12 p.m. Saturday on ABC
Notre Dame faces real upset potential Saturday against one of the other hottest teams in college football.
The Fighting Irish have won seven straight since an 0-2 start, but the Panthers have won five straight (four of them blowouts by 15 points or more) and are unbeaten since making a change at QB to true freshman Mason Heintschel (302.2 passing yards per game in his five starts).
The difference in the rankings of these teams and in the point spread (Notre Dame is a 12.5-point favorite on the road!) don’t really add up to what they’ve actually accomplished this season. In fact, Notre Dame has the thinnest resume of any top-10 team with a home win over USC the only really notable victory. Otherwise, it has beat up on the bottom of the Power Four (Boston College, Purdue and Arkansas) along with the likes of NC State, Boise State and Navy while losing its two toughest games (to Miami and Texas A&M in Weeks 1-2).
That said, the Irish has been pretty dominant during its winning streak with an average margin of victory of more than 26 points.
Both teams have everything at stake in this one, too.
If Notre Dame loses, it deserves to fall out of the CFP conversation (whether it actually would or not is another story). Pitt has to win out to have any shot as well, but it has every opportunity to play its way in with Notre Dame, at No. 16 Georgia Tech and home vs. No. 15 Miami.
Notre Dame is a 12.5-point favorite.
No. 21 Iowa (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) at No. 17 USC (7-2, 5-1)
3:30 p.m. Saturday on Big Ten Network
Iowa nearly toppled a top-10 Oregon team last week, driving for a go-ahead touchdown with less than 2 minutes remaining only to watch the Ducks answer and kick a game-winning field goal as time expired.
It’s a major what-if for the Hawkeyes, who would be in the driver’s seat with a win and remaining games against always-vulnerable USC, Michigan State and Nebraska. Instead, they can merely try to play spoiler and deliver the same dagger to the Trojans on Saturday.
USC has but one truly notable win all season (31-13 over a ranked Michigan team in Los Angeles) and losses to Notre Dame and Illinois, but the path to the playoffs is clear — win out vs. Iowa, No. 8 Oregon and rival UCLA and the 10-2 Trojans would be an at-large lock.
Nothing about the last three seasons, though, has given any reason to be confident USC can do that.
Lincoln Riley has had a rough go of things on the road since his 11-win first season in LA, but before that trip to Eugene even matters the Trojans have to beat an Iowa team that plays a completely different style of football.
USC is second nationally in total offense at 503.2 yards per game and tied for seventh in scoring at 39.6 points per game. Iowa is, as usual, bottom-20 in the FBS in total offense (309.1 YPG, 121st) but fourth in total defense (250.2 YPG) and sixth in points allowed (13.7 PPG).
USC is a 6.5-point favorite.
TCU (6-3, 3-3 Big 12) at No. 12 BYU (8-1, 5-1)
10:15 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
This is another game we’re putting on upset alert.
BYU was one of the last few remaining undefeated teams after cruising through a very favorable schedule, with a 24-21 win over Utah its only ranked win. Then the Cougars played a top-10 Texas Tech team last week and got beat 29-7.
If they lose again Saturday night to TCU, they could go from top-10 unbeaten to potentially out of the playoff discussion in the span of eight days.
BYU could still make the Big 12 title game even with a loss here, but that would mean a likely rematch with Texas Tech and those teams didn’t at all look to be on the same level last week. The Cougars would not be worthy of an at-large playoff berth if they lose this one, meanwhile.
So for all intents and purposes, their season is on the line here.
And why do we think that is a possibility? Because TCU’s offense led by senior quarterback Josh Hoover can be one of the most potent in the country, albeit a little erratic week to week. But if the Horned Frogs are clicking offensively, we’ve already seen that BYU isn’t really built to play from behind with its limited passing attack.
BYU is a 3.5-point favorite.