Three AP top-10 teams lost Saturday, and six of the top 25 tumbled in another turbulent week of this chaotic college football season.
And all of that before the first official College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday.
Texas has yo-yo’d from preseason No. 1 to out of the rankings entirely to now firmly back in the playoff picture.
Miami looked like it had a clear path to locking up a playoff berth and maybe an ACC title along the way, but that’s no longer the case.
Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt were the best stories in college football, but both lost Saturday to change the dynamics of their season in significant ways.
There are four weeks left in the regular season, so how does the 12-team CFP picture stand?
Glad you asked! We don’t need the official CFP rankings to tell us what we’ve watched the last two months. Let’s take a deep dive into it all.
Locks To Make The College Football Playoff
1. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are the reigning national champions and probably still the best team in college football, hence their No. 1 national ranking.
Ohio State is 8-0 and hasn’t played a close game since that 14-7 win over Texas in Week 1. It had a favorable Big Ten schedule to begin with and one that has only become more advantageous with preseason top-12 teams Illinois and Penn State falling off so substantially.
The Buckeyes rolled over the Nittany Lions on Saturday, 38-14, and there is but one remaining notable obstacle in their path — the finale on the road at rival Michigan — before what will almost certainly be a Big Ten championship game showdown with No. 2 Indiana.
Ohio State could even lose to the Wolverines and the Hoosiers in the title game and still warrant inclusion in the 12-team CFP field.
2. Indiana
It’s honestly debatable as to which of these Big Ten teams is better, but Indiana continues to make its case week after week.
In the last two games, the No. 2-ranked Hoosiers (9-0) have won by scores of 56-6 (vs. UCLA) and 55-10 (at Maryland). They’ve had one game all season decided by single digits, for that matter, and despite what is certainly a favorable schedule, Indiana does have that signature 30-20 road win at then-No. 3 Oregon.
Indiana has Penn State, Wisconsin and Purdue to close out the schedule and secure that Big Ten championship game opportunity.
There’s simply no way the Hoosiers aren’t back in the CFP for the second straight year.
3. Alabama
The No. 4-ranked Crimson Tide (7-1) had the week off after reeling off seven straight wins, including four in a row over ranked opponents.
Alabama returns to action at home against a ranked Oklahoma team that is fresh of a big win at Tennessee and closes the regular season with the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn.
As one of two teams, along with Texas A&M, undefeated in conference play the Tide controls its path to the SEC championship game. Regardless, it would take an unthinkable collapse for an Alabama team with its resume to not be on the bracket in December.
Almost Locks To Make The College Football Playoff
4. Texas A&M
Whatever lingering skepticism there is about this 8-0 Aggies team is probably unfair.
There’s every reason to believe Mike Elko is establishing himself as one of the elite coaches in the sport. Texas A&M won at Notre Dame early in the season, beat LSU so badly it got Brian Kelly fired the next day and has otherwise taken care of business.
Road games at ranked Missouri and Texas are still to come, though, along with a potential SEC championship game.
We’re definitely overthinking this — almost surely — but it would feel better seeing the Aggies close out the schedule strong before assuming anything is all.
5. Ole Miss
The 8-1 Rebels just have to land the plane. Beating Oklahoma last week on the road and then taking care of business vs. South Carolina on Saturday in what could have been a prime letdown game puts the Rebels in a very comfortable position.
They close the season vs. The Citadel, Florida and at Mississippi State. The Gators and Bulldogs have been frisky, so nothing can be assumed, but provided Ole Miss wins out it will be in the playoffs regardless of whether it gets into the SEC championship game or not.
Now It Gets Interesting
6. Georgia
The unspoken reality is that 7-1 Georgia really hasn’t been very assertive all season.
The Bulldogs needed overtime to beat Tennessee, lost at home to Alabama, had to rally back after a bad first half vs. Auburn and ditto Saturday vs. Florida (24-20).
Georgia did rise to the occasion in the win over Ole Miss, though, but plenty of work remains.
The Bulldogs play at Mississippi State (which, don’t laugh, has actually been a tough out most weeks this season), and home vs. ranked Texas and Georgia Tech teams. They already don’t control their path to the SEC championship game, and add another loss (or two) into the mix and all bets are off.
7. Oregon
The 7-1 Ducks have lost only to Indiana, which may well be the best team in college football. But the strong likelihood that Oregon will be kept out of the Big Ten championship game and that it has two notable challenges remaining — home vs. USC and at Washington — means it can’t punch its playoff ticket just yet.
It was the Huskies who handed the 2023 Ducks both of their losses in a 12-2 season and kept them out of the then four-team playoff.
8. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have never made the playoffs, but it looks to be a strong probability that changes this year.
Texas Tech (8-1) has been downright dominant all season, with all eight of its wins coming by 23 points or more. Its only loss at Arizona State was with starting quarterback Behren Morton out with injury.
The Red Raiders do have to play undefeated BYU next Saturday, so that’s why they aren’t listed in a higher tier here. Texas Tech may be ranked lower than the Cougars, but it looks like the better team.
A loss would be costly, though. Only one Big 12 team made it into the CFP last year, and a second loss would likely keep Texas Tech out of the conference championship game and leave its fate to the discretion of the suits on the playoff selection committee.
If Texas Tech beats BYU at home, then it can coast until the Big 12 title game with lowly UCF and West Virginia all that’s left in between.
9. BYU
Speaking of …
The Cougars are one of the biggest surprise teams in college football, riding true freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier to an 8-0 start.
But the only ranked team BYU has played was in-state rival Utah (a 24-21 win), and its closing schedule isn’t easy.
The Cougars have that showdown on the road with Texas Tech this week, then face a very formidable TCU team followed by a road game at Cincinnati (before closing out vs. UCF).
Would it be a total surprise to see BYU lose two of those games? No, it wouldn’t, and again, the Big 12 doesn’t get the same respect as the SEC and Big Ten when it comes to such things as those coveted CFP berths.
10. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish played in the national title game last year and entered this week as the highest-ranked two-loss team in the AP poll at No. 12. So if Notre Dame wins out it’s going to be in the playoff.
It has now won six straight games since starting 0-2 with losses to ranked Miami and Texas A&M teams, and the Irish close the schedule with Navy, Pitt, Syracuse and Stanford.
Navy is a one-loss team, but it hasn’t played anyone and just lost to North Texas. The game to watch is vs. Pittsburgh, which has won five straight and looks like a tough out for all comers.
If Notre Dame drops that game, the Irish will end up out of the CFP.
ACC Champion
11. Georgia Tech
The other Power Four conference hasn’t been mentioned yet.
Right now, 8-1 Georgia Tech looks like the favorite in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets took their first loss Saturday, 48-36 at unranked NC State, in one of the most surprising outcomes of the day. That leaves them no margin for error the rest of the way.
Without getting into the mess of how the tiebreakers work, Georgia Tech is one of five teams with one ACC loss (along with Pittsburgh, Louisville, SMU and Duke), while Virginia remains unbeaten in conference play.
The Yellow Jackets hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Duke and still play Pittsburgh this month. (Louisville and SMU also play head-to-head, so the loser of that game will be knocked out.
Getting into the ACC title game is imperative. Georgia Tech closes the regular season against nonconference in-state rival Georgia, and that game really only impacts CFP matters if the Yellow Jackets aren’t in the championship game in control of their fate.
Automatic Entry Into CFP
12. TBD
The highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion gets one of the 12 playoff berths. That seems likely to come from the AAC, which still has six teams with only one conference loss battling it out.
Memphis, South Florida and North Texas look like the best bets, while Navy, Tulane and East Carolina are still in the hunt.
Still Alive In CFP Hunt
So if somehow all of the teams mentioned above, including the to-be-determined AAC champion, hold their spots then that is the entirety of the 12-team playoff field.
But that’s not going to happen.
It’s doubtful two Big 12 teams make it. It’s anyone’s guess which ACC team ultimately gets in. Any of those SEC teams could get played out of the playoff picture, and Oregon could stumble in the Big Ten still.
So who are the other viable contenders for a potential playoff spot? We’ll keep the list going in order.
13. Texas
Written off after a 3-2 start and quarterback Arch Manning’s stunning struggles, 7-2 Texas is very much back in the picture after a 34-31 win over then-No. 9 Vanderbilt on Saturday in Manning’s best game of the season. Pair that with the dominant win over Oklahoma last month, and that one their losses is to Ohio State, and the Longhorns will be viewed favorably by the committed if they win out.
Texas doesn’t have a clear path to the SEC title game, which may work in its favor as all it needs to do is get to 10-2 — because that would mean two more highly-compelling wins with No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M still to play. That also means a good chance for a third loss and playoff elimination.
14. Virginia
Virginia doesn’t win pretty, but it keeps winning all the same. The Cavaliers are 8-1 and control their destiny as the only ACC team without a conference loss. Get to the ACC championship game, win and they’re in. We just don’t think they’re as good as some of the league’s other contenders, and they could still trip up with remaining games against Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia Tech.
15. Vanderbilt
The Commodores will lose their top-10 ranking after the 34-31 loss at Texas. Now 7-2, Vanderbilt also isn’t totally in control of its playoff fate.
It closes with Auburn, Kentucky and Tennessee. Already with three wins over ranked opponents (South Carolina and LSU were ranked at the time, plus Missouri), Vanderbilt could have a strong case for an at-large berth if it gets to 10-2 with road win over the Vols.
But then it comes down to how many SEC teams can get in. If Alabama, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Georgia (or Texas) make it, the next-best team could be squeezed out purely by a numbers game.
16. Oklahoma
The same goes for the 7-2 Sooners. The road win at then-No. 14 Tennessee on Saturday was imperative for Oklahoma.
Pair that with an earlier win at home over a ranked Michigan team and losses to ranked Texas and Ole Miss and the Sooners have a path — especially as getting to 10-2 would involve beating Alabama, Missouri and LSU still.
In this case, it’s not opportunity that has Oklahoma so low on the list — it’s reality and the longshot it wins out.
17. Louisville
Again, without delving into the ACC tiebreaker scenarios and just evaluating the program on its work this season, the 7-1 Cardinals certainly have a shot.
Their only loss is to Virginia while they have the upset over Miami (which was No. 2 at the time).
Clemson and SMU are the biggest remaining hurdles.
18. SMU
Again, the ACC doesn’t have a dominant team and so whoever makes the conference championship game has a fair shot at the league’s playoff berth.
SMU was in the CFP last year, stumbled a few times this season but just beat Miami, 26-20, and still only has one ACC loss.
19. Pittsburgh
Same case as above. Pittsburgh is 5-0 since turning to true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel. Overall, the Panthers are 7-2 with one ACC loss, so depending how the conference championship game matchup shakes out …
Pitt also has a daunting final stretch, vs. Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech and vs. Miami.
20. USC
The Trojans are 6-2, including a road loss at ranked Notre Dame and a lopsided win over ranked Michigan. If they win out and get to 10-2 — requiring wins over Iowa, a top-10 Oregon team, UCLA and Northwestern — they would have an interesting case for the committee to consider.
But until that time comes …
21. Michigan
The 7-2 Wolverines have Northwestern and Maryland the next two games before hosting No. 1 Ohio State in the regular-season finale. Michigan has won four straight over the Buckeyes, including during Ohio State’s national championship season last year, so they can’t be counted out yet.
22. Cincinnati
The 7-2 Bearcats had a seven-game winning streak snapped in a disappointing 45-14 loss at Utah on Saturday, but that is the only Big 12 loss for the team.
Cincinnati still gets a game with BYU, and if it can win out it would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Cougars and control its path to the Big 12 championship game. That’s a huge “if”, however.
Hard To See A Path To The CFP
Miami: Two losses to teams unranked at the time, including the 26-20 loss at SMU.
Duke: Only one ACC loss, but it was to Georgia Tech, so a path to the conference championship game is unlikely and the Blue Devils have three losses overall.
Utah: Huge win over Cincinnati on Saturday, but the 7-2 Utes don’t have a clear path to the Big 12 championship game and won’t earn an at-large berth.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes 7-2 and have big games remaining against ranked Oregon and USC (on the road), but they don’t have the offensive firepower to beat both of those teams.