The first College Football Playoff rankings come out Tuesday, so this is the final weekend for teams to jockey for position and standing — and really start to care about style points.
Week 10 also truly begins must-win mode for all but a select few teams that can still weather a setback and chase their top goals.
Appropriately, the Saturday schedule is highlighted by a true elimination game for a pair of SEC teams that will certainly be disappointed with anything less than a playoff spot, while a number of other teams also find themselves on the brink of deflating disappointment with another defeat.
Here are the five best games across college football around which to plan your Saturday …
(All game times ET; all point spreads via ESPN Bet)
No. 9 Vanderbilt (7-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 20 Texas (6-2, 3-1)
12 p.m. Saturday on ABC
As good as the Vanderbilt story is already — best start since 1941, highest ranking since 1937 — it almost demands a fitting ending at this point.
That means a true breakthrough into the College Football Playoff, which is fully in Vandy’s control as it enters the final month of the season.
The Commodores don’t have an easy path, per se, but they have a viable one with No. 20 Texas this week, Auburn and No. 14 Tennessee to close out SEC play.
The Longhorns may or may not have quarterback Arch Manning on Saturday as he has been deemed questionable all week while working through the concussion protocol. And his status may or may not even matter, as Manning has been an up-and-down wildcard all season. Even with him, Texas has been hanging on by a thread, needing overtime in consecutive weeks to escape Kentucky (16-13) and Mississippi State (45-38 with backup QB Matthew Caldwell tossing the game-winning TD).
This is a prime opportunity for Vanderbilt to score a third straight win over a ranked opponent (after beating LSU and Missouri) — and for QB Diego Pavia to elevate his Heisman Trophy campaign — but it won’t come easy as Texas’ defense is capable of carrying the Longhorns at times regardless of who the QB is or what he’s doing.
As for the Longhorns, they too maintain CFP hopes if they can win out, but with games still to come at No. 5 Georgia and home vs. No. 3 Texas A&M, that seems like a longshot.
Texas is a 3.5-point favorite.
No. 18 Oklahoma (6-2, 2-2 SEC) at No. 14 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2)
7:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC
There really isn’t any logical reason why Tennessee is ranked four spots ahead of Oklahoma. If anything, it should probably be the other way around.
Both teams lost their two toughest games, and the Sooners’ wins over Auburn and Michigan are better than anything Tennessee has done this fall.
The Vols are still getting credit for making the CFP last year and, apparently, for taking Georgia to overtime in a Week 3 loss. Otherwise, they got beat handily by Alabama (37-20), needed overtime to squeak past Mississippi State (41-34) and then narrowly beat Arkansas at home (34-31). Their best win was actually last week over reeling Kentucky, as the Vols at least took full control of that game in a 56-34 victory.
That said, Oklahoma has to shake off its loss to Ole Miss last week — the first time its vaunted defense was truly bested — and play on the road in a must-win game for both teams.
Neither team is really in the SEC championship race anymore with two losses, but win out and either would have a strong case for a CFP at-large berth at 10-2 with some big November wins.
Tennessee has the better path to doing that, getting Oklahoma at home, followed by New Mexico State, at Florida and home vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt. Even with a win Saturday, the Sooners would still have to win at No. 4 Alabama after their bye week, then home vs. No. 19 Missouri and LSU. No three-loss team earned a CFP at-large invite last year, and that isn’t likely to change this season.
Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite.
No. 17 Cincinnati (7-1, 5-0 Big 12) at No. 24 Utah (6-2, 3-2)
10:15 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
This pivotal Big 12 clash is getting the ESPN “College GameDay” spotlight as the show sets up live from Salt Lake City on Saturday morning.
Cincinnati might be the most under-the-radar really good team in college football — or at least the Bearcats have the chance to prove that Saturday night.
They dropped their season-opener by three points to Nebraska and have reeled off seven straight wins since then, including a thoroughly impressive and commanding 41-20 win over Baylor last week.
After going 3-9 and 5-7 in their first two seasons after moving up from the Group of Five ranks to the Big 12, the Bearcats are proving they belong this year and have a real path to the CFP if they win out. They control their path to the Big 12 championship game with this big road test and a battle with No. 10 BYU the toughest obstacles remaining.
Quarterback Brendan Sorsby is having a sublime season, passing for 1,843 yards, 20 touchdowns and 1 interception and rushing for 425 yards and 7 TDs.
But Utah is hard to beat, especially at home.
The Utes are likely out of Big 12 contention with two losses already — 34-10 to a full-strength Texas Tech and 24-21 on the road at undefeated BYU — and even at 10-2 it might be hard to crack the CFP. Only one Big 12 team made it last year, but it’s too early to say definitively so for all intents and purposes Utah is playing for its season Saturday night.
Utah is a 10.5-point favorite.
No. 10 Miami (6-1, 2-1 ACC) at SMU (5-3, 3-1)
12 p.m. Saturday on ESPN
Both Miami and SMU are technically still alive in the ACC hunt, but neither control their own fate there with Georgia Tech and Virginia both unbeaten in the conference (the Cavaliers’ early loss to NC State was technically considered a nonconference game) followed by a glut of teams with one league loss.
The Hurricanes actually don’t need to get to the ACC title game to make the playoffs, though. If they win out and get to 11-1, they’ll be a lock for an at-large berth. Anything less and it’s out of their hands.
So this is a must-win game for both, but the real stakes belong to Miami.
The Hurricanes bounced back from that upset loss to Louisville with a commanding 42-7 win at Stanford last week, but this will be a tougher test.
SMU was a playoff team last year and expected to be a top ACC contender. Early nonconference loss to Baylor and Miami hurt, but the Mustangs’ biggest regret is letting one slip away last week at Wake Forest, which booted a 50-yard field goal as time expired to down SMU, 13-12.
That is the Mustangs’ only ACC loss and the reason they’re now a real longshot to get to the championship game. Even if it doesn’t change that reality, a win over a top-10 Miami team would help reframe how this season is viewed for SMU.
Miami is a 10.5-point favorite.
Navy (7-0, 5-0 AAC) at North Texas (7-1, 3-1)
12 p.m. Saturday on ESPN2
That’s right, a little spotlight and respect for the Group of Five level and the highly-entertaining AAC race.
Remember, the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion will get an automatic berth into the CFP field, and that is most likely to be the winner of the AAC. So this game has national implications.
Navy isn’t ranked, but it is one of six remaining unbeaten teams in college football and the only AAC team without a conference loss yet.
That said, the Midshipmen really don’t have any needle-moving wins (32-31 at Temple may be their best). But their signature triple-option offense can cause headaches for any opponent.
Navy has five players with at least 200 rushing yards, but quarterback Blake Horvath is the engine of the operation. He leads the team in rushing with 814 yards and 12 TDs and has also passed for 1,073 yards, 7 TDs and 3 INTs.
North Texas, meanwhile, is worth watching for its offensive fireworks alone.
Last week, redshirt-freshman QB Drew Mestemaker threw for a school-record 608 yards in a blowout win over Charlotte, completing 37 of 49 passes with 4 TDs and 1 INT. For the season, he has 2,468 passing yards (second-most in the FBS), 21 TDs and 4 INTs (plus 4 rushing TDs).
North Texas took its only loss to a then-ranked South Florida team. Overall, the Mean Green is the highest-scoring team at the FBS level (46.1 points per game) and ranks fifth nationally in total offense (495.8 yards per game).
The AAC race is cluttered at the top entering Week 10, with Navy alone in first and North Texas, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Temple and East Carolina all with just one conference loss.
North Texas is a 6.5-point favorite.