A week and a half ago, after Miami quarterback Carson Beck threw his way out of contention, it looked like the Heisman Trophy race was down to two clear favorites. Then by the end of that weekend it was three QBs ahead of the pack.
Now, it’s more like five entering Week 10 of the college football season.
Per the updated odds from BetMGM, Alabama QB Ty Simpson and Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza remain the favorites at +325 odds, followed closely by Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+400). But Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed made a major surge over the weekend, jumping from +1000 to +550, and Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia surged from +1300 to +800.
All five have to be considered viable contenders for college football’s top honor — for now.
As we’ve seen time and again this season, the Heisman race is unforgiving. One bad game — like Oregon QB Dante Moore had vs. Indiana, or like Beck had vs. Louisville — and it can be over just like that. Or many bad games, in the case of Texas QB and popular preseason Heisman pick Arch Manning.
As we do each week, let’s break the Heisman race down further with a closer look at the top contenders and any relevant dark horse candidates.
Breaking Down The Heisman Contenders
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+350): Simpson had his worst completion percentage Saturday vs. South Carolina (24 of 43, 55.8%) since the season-opening loss to Florida State in his first career start. But he nonetheless passed for 253 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs in a 29-22 road win. He also delivered when it mattered most. Alabama was down 22-14 in the fourth quarter when Simpson led a 79-yard touchdown drive, completing 7-of-9 passes for 54 yards, including a 4-yard touchdown pass for Germie Bernard and a successful two-point conversion pass to tie the game at 22-22. A South Carolina fumble and 25-yard Bernard touchdown run gave Alabama the lead from there. Simpson is up to 2,184 passing yards, 20 TDs and 1 INT for the No. 4 team in the country with four wins over ranked opponents with more opportunities to come.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+350): It was a typical day for Mendoza and the Hoosiers, who coasted to a 56-6 win over UCLA. The QB had a season-low 163 passing yards and an INT, but it came with 3 TDs through the air and another on the ground. Overall, Mendoza has 1,923 passing yards, 24 TDs, 3 INTs and 3 rushing TDs for No. 2-ranked, unbeaten Indiana. Unless counting a road game at Penn State next week, the Hoosiers don’t play another ranked team before a potential Big Ten championship game appearance. Mendoza was so good in Indiana’s biggest wins — including the 30-20 victory at Oregon — that if he gets to and delivers in the conference championship game (especially if it’s against Ohio State), with the compelling narrative of Indiana’s collective underdog success story, that will make a mighty strong case.
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+400): Ohio State had a bye, so Sayin’s stats stayed at 1,872 passing yards, 19 TDs and 3 INTs for the unbeaten No. 1-ranked Buckeyes. Ohio State doesn’t play a ranked team again until the regular-season finale at No. 21 Michigan followed by a potential Big Ten championship game before the Heisman votes are cast. But as long as the Buckeyes handle business and stay undefeated, those two games will be enough spotlight for Sayin to make his Heisman case.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+550): No. 3-ranked Texas A&M reeled off 35 straight points in the second half to obliterate LSU, 49-25, and end the Brian Kelly Era in Baton Rouge. Reed was a major part of that, passing for 202 yards, 2 TDs and 2 INTs and rushing for 108 yards and 2 TDs. Both interceptions came in the second quarter as the Aggies went into halftime down 18-14, but Reed was in control the rest of the way. Texas A&M looks very legit while Reed is up to 1,972 passing yards, 17 TDs, 6 INTs, 349 rushing yards and six scores. Road games at No. 19 Missouri and No. 20 Texas and a potential SEC championship game are the biggest tests for the Aggies — and biggest opportunities for Reed — the rest of the way.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia (+800): Pavia opened the season with +12,500 Heisman odds, but he’s making more believers by the week. Vandy has collected two straight wins over top-15 teams to move to No. 9 in the AP top 25 poll for its best national ranking since 1937, with Pavia as the clear catalyst. With Pavia, it goes beyond the stats. In a physical, grinding 17-10 win over then-No. 15 Missouri on Saturday, he only passed for 129 yards with 0 TD and a pick, but he rushed for the go-ahead score inside the final 2 minutes. Overall, he’s passed for 1,698 yards, 15 TDs and 5 INTs and rushed for 458 yards and 5 TDs. Pavia’s Heisman candidacy really hinges on how much more special this Vandy story becomes. The Commodores have a viable path to winning out and finishing the regular season 11-1 (with road games at No. 20 Texas and No. 14 Tennessee the biggest hurdles). If that happens, the narrative may be all Pavia needs to win over a significant number of voters.
Dark Horse Heisman Candidate
Georgia Tech QB Haynes King (+2,500): The No. 8-ranked Yellow Jackets are 8-0 for the first time since 1966, and King is actually an even better version of Pavia statistically — arguably the best dual-threat QB in the country, for that matter. But neither he nor Georgia Tech have received the same level of national attention, in part because the only ranked opponent they’ve played is no longer ranked (Clemson). Which is why King’s Heisman odds haven’t moved as much as Pavia’s. But he has 1,480 passing yards, 7 TDs, 1 INT and leads the team with 651 rushing yards and 12 TDs. He’s a plenty capable passer — it’s just not Georgia Tech’s offensive identity. Saturday, though, he completed 25-of-31 passes for a season-high 304 yards and 3 TDs and rushed 12 times for 91 yards and 2 scores in a 41-16 win over Syracuse. The Yellow Jackets could be undefeated heading into their regular-season finale against No. 5 Georgia. That could give King the spotlight needed to really enter the conversation depending on the outcome.
Our Heisman Pick
Same as in recent weeks, we’re sticking with Ty Simpson for now. Alabama still has big games against LSU, No. 18 Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn, plus a potential SEC championship game. If the Crimson Tide win out, Simpson will have played the toughest schedule of any of these top contenders.
The wrinkle will be if Indiana gets to play Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game and wins, with Fernando Mendoza being a leading reason why. If that happens, Mendoza would surge to the forefront.
It’s hard to see a clear path for Sayin or Reed unless those top two stumble. Pavia is a true wild card, though. If Vanderbilt is 11-1 with five top-25 wins and headed to the College Football Playoff, whether it plays in the SEC title game or not, it will be very interesting to see how much the voters weight the strength of that story over raw stats.
The competition just to settle on the four finalists — which is a prestigious honor in its own right — will also be fun to watch.