A week ago, Miami quarterback Carson Beck shared the best betting odds for the Heisman Trophy, was the face of the undefeated No. 2 team in the country and enjoying a classic redemption narrative after his departure from Georgia.
And then he tossed four interceptions Friday night in a 24-21 loss at home to then-unranked Louisville.
Now, his Heisman odds have dropped from +350 to +2500, per BetMGM, essentially taking him out of the race.
College football is unforgiving like that.
So, let’s break down where the Heisman Trophy picture stands entering Week 9 of the season …
Updated Heisman Trophy Odds
(From BetMGM)
Alabama QB Ty Simpson (+300): Alabama has won four straight games over ranked opponents as Simpson continues to do his part as a dependable catalyst for the offense. He passed for 253 yards and 2 TDs in the Crimson Tide’s comfortable 37-20 win over then-No. 11 Tennessee on Saturday. Simpson’s best virtue is he doesn’t make mistakes and he keeps the offense moving. Overall, he’s passed for 1,931 yards, 18 TDs and 1 INT. If Alabama keeps winning in spotlight matchups — it still has No. 20 LSU, No. 13 Oklahoma and the Iron Bowl vs. Auburn to come — Simpson could be hard to beat.
Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza (+300): Then again, narrative always comes into play in the Heisman race, and if Indiana wins the Big Ten it’s going to be hard not to be compelled into crowning the Hoosiers QB. Mendoza was great again Saturday in Indiana’s 38-13 win over Michigan State, passing for 332 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs while completing 24 of 28 passes. It really can’t be done much better than that. Mendoza has 1,755 passing yards, 21 TDs and 2 INTs, plus 2 rushing TDs. Beyond Indiana’s collective narrative, Mendoza’s own story is pretty special. He was a two-star recruit (on the 247Sports Composite) that Cal plucked out of Miami. After three years with the Golden Bears, Mendoza transferred to Indiana and is helping the Hoosiers somehow top what they did last year (so far).
Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+300): Sayin made the biggest surge in the Heisman race last week, jumping from +1500 odds to a three-way tie with Simpson and Mendoza atop the list. That happened after he completed 36 of 42 passes for 393 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs in a 34-0 win over Wisconsin. The sophomore first-year starter is up 1,872 passing yards, 19 TDs and 3 INTs. If the Buckeyes are the clear No. 1 and get through the Big Ten championship game undefeated — which likely requires a championship game win over Indiana — then Sayin deserves plenty of consideration. But the Buckeyes having the best defense in college football might detract a little from his case.
Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (+1000): Stockton has moved into the Heisman picture after delivering his best performance of the season in a huge 43-35 win over then-No. 5 Ole Miss in which Georgia needed to rely on its offense more than usual. Stockton completed 26 of 31 passes for 289 yards, 4 TDs and 0 INTs, plus 59 rushing yards and a TD. Overall, he’s passed for 1,553 yards, 10 TDs and 1 INT plus 279 yards and 7 TDs. Stockton wasn’t getting a lot of Heisman buzz before last week, and he’d need more games like that one to really shake up the top of this list.
Texas A&M QB Marcel Reed (+1000): For the QB of the No. 3 team in the country, Reed hasn’t gotten a lot of individual buzz. That is likely because the Aggies have only played one marquee game — the early win at Notre Dame. They have games at No. 20 LSU, at No. 15 Missouri and at No. 22 Texas still to come, so perhaps a late surge could move him more into the Heisman picture. Reed has passed for 1,770 yards, 15 TDs and 4 INTs, plus 241 yards and 4 TDs rushing.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia (+1300): The narrative of all narratives if No. 10-ranked Vanderbilt can somehow keep this going. Pavia is the engine that drives the Commodores and showed it again in the 31-24 win over then-No. 10 LSU on Saturday, leading the team in rushing (17 carries for 86 yards and 2 TDs) and passing (160 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs). He’s up to 1,569 passing yards, 15 TDs, 4 INTs with 438 rushing yards and 4 TDs. With No. 15 Missouri, No. 22 Texas and No. 17 Tennessee still on the schedule, Pavia will have chances to build his Heisman campaign, but it’s going to take everything. Vanderbilt is already making history with its first 6-1 start since 1950 and its highest national ranking since 1947, but the program has never had a 10-win season. If Pavia gets Vandy there, he would almost have to be a Heisman finalist at the very least.
Our Heisman Trophy Pick
We’ve been on Ty Simpson for a few weeks now and will stick with that pick. Alabama has a chance to have the best resume in college football. It sure looks like the best team in the SEC and could still add three more wins over ranked teams (including the SEC championship game) before the final Heisman voting. But it’s certainly a tight race that could continue to swing weekly.
Heisman Trophy Dark Horses
Unlike in previous weeks, it’s hard to really trumpet anyone beyond the list above. If USC had won at Notre Dame, QB Jayden Maiava could have still merited monitoring but no longer. Oregon QB Dante Moore (+1500) would need the field to fall apart in front of him to have any chance now, as he struggled in the loss to Indiana and will have a hard time overcoming that.
Pavia is the dark horse, really. His odds should probably be higher, and as we outlined above he has a clear path to being one of the four Heisman finalists. There’s no way a QB leads Vanderbilt to its first 10-win season ever while putting up strong stats and being a big personality that the college football world has already embraced … and he not be a Heisman finalist.
Now, all of that still has to happen. If Vanderbilt’s storybook season fizzles in the coming weeks, it’s all moot. But the path is there, and if the luster comes off the top QBs on this list at all, that would be a further opening for Pavia.