The early odds for the 2026 Heisman Trophy race are out and, well, let’s just say we don’t totally agree with them.
Per FanDuel Sportsbook, here are the top 10 betting favorites as it stands now:
Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (+800), Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss (+800), Texas QB Arch Manning (+950), Indiana QB Josh Hoover (+1100), Oregon QB Dante Moore (+1300), Ohio State QB Julian Sayin (+1300), Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith (+1300), Miami QB Darian Mensah (+1500), LSU QB Sam Leavitt (+1600) and Georgia QB Gunner Stockton (+1600).
(The odds differ a little by source, but not all sportsbooks — like BetMGM, for one — have added Chambliss yet as the NCAA is expected to appeal the court-issued injunction presently giving him an extra year of eligibility.)
Now would be a good time to remember what the preseason Heisman odds looked like a year ago.
The favorites were Manning, LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier, Clemson QB Cade Klubnik, Smith, Penn State QB Drew Allar, then-Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava (before his post-spring transfer to UCLA) and South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers.
What a list. None of those players were even Heisman finalists by the end and only Smith landed in the top 10 of the final voting.
Ditto for early-season favorites like Oklahoma QB John Mateer, Miami QB Carson Beck and Alabama QB Ty Simpson.
The player who actually won the Heisman, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, had preseason odds ranging between 50-1 and 75-1 depending on the source.
The point being — that list is all well and good, but it’s absolutely open to dissection.
So we made our own list.
Who will be the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner?
These are the five best bets, as it stands right now, to win the Heisman Trophy in 2026.
1. Texas QB Arch Manning
Setting Manning as one of the preseason Heisman favorites last year seemed premature given how little he’d played his first two years at Texas.
It was fair to think that if the former five-star prospect was that ready to pace all of college football than he likely wouldn’t have been on the bench for most of his first two seasons. The Manning name outshined such logic, though, and many were ready to just assume that because he’s a Manning he must be ready to dominate in his first season as a starter. (Mind you, he’s Cooper Manning’s son — not Peyton or Eli’s.)
The point being, we were very skeptical about the outsized Manning hype entering last season, especially considering how protected he had been during the recruiting process, staying away from national camps where most top recruits relish the opportunity to compete against the best of their peers. He even passed on the prestigious Elite 11 quarterback camp/competition.
And sure enough, Manning struggled out of the gate under the full spotlight last fall. He looked hesitant and lacking confidence, he missed open receivers and seemed uncomfortable in the pocket.
But as he gained real experience, he found that confidence and comfort.
By the end of the season, Manning was playing as well as any quarterback in college football.
After throwing 5 interceptions in the first five games, he threw just 2 picks the rest of the way. Over the final six games, he averaged 285.7 passing yards while totaling 14 passing TDs, 2 INTs, 5 rushing TDs and 1 receiving TD. He closed the season with 221 passing yards, 155 rushing yards and 4 total TDs in a 41-27 Citrus Bowl win over Michigan.
Overall, Manning completed 61.4% of his passes for 3,163 yards, 26 TDs and 7 INTs with 399 rushing yards and 10 TDs (and the receiving score) as a redshirt sophomore.
If he carries that confidence over to 2026 as a seasoned fourth-year junior, he should significantly surpass those numbers while leading an absolutely loaded Texas offense that added the best wide receiver transfer available in Cam Coleman (from Auburn) and two of the top running back transfers in Hollywood Smothers (NC State) and Raleek Brown (Arizona State).
Given all that, Manning’s 8-to-1 odds are a bargain!
2. Miami QB Darian Mensah
Perhaps the most controversial (and expensive) transfer of this cycle, Miami invested substantially to find Carson Beck’s replacement after Mensah resolved his legal battle with Duke to break the lucrative two-year NIL deal he had signed with the Blue Devils a year earlier.
It should prove worth the trouble for Mensah as he lands in a bigger spotlight on a Miami team with national championship expectations after reaching the title game this past season — and in an absolutely loaded offense.
Mensah was exceptional for Duke, but it largely flew under the radar for casual college football fans as the Blue Devils went 9-5 despite ultimately winning the ACC (with help from a convoluted tiebreaker).
After breaking out as a redshirt freshman at Tulane in 2024, Mensah cashed in to transfer to Duke and delivered a nice return on his reported $4 million/year NIL deal. He completed 66.8% of his passes for 3,973 yards, 34 TDs and 6 INTs (with 1 rushing TD).
Mensah is a better quarterback than Beck, plain and simple, and he’s in an even better situation with the Hurricanes now.
His top Duke target, Cooper Barkate, transferred with him to Miami after catching 72 passes for 1,106 yards and 7 TDs last season.
The Hurricanes also have star sophomore Malachi Toney (109-1,211-10 as a true freshman), who might be the most dynamic player in all of college football, and added yet more talent from the transfer portal with Vandrevius Jacobs (32-548-4 at South Carolina) and Cam Vaughn (35-541-4 at West Virginia).
Mensah should exceed his already impressive numbers from the last two seasons and truly open eyes around college football next fall.
Him having the eighth-best Heisman odds (or 10th-best with BetMGM) is completely absurd.
*3. Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss*
Perhaps no player has ever fought harder to avoid the NFL draft and a likely early round selection than Chambliss.
His prolonged battle with the NCAA to be granted a sixth year of eligibility, with his case being that he warranted a medical redshirt season during his time at Division II Ferris State, continued with a breakthrough last week in Mississippi state court. Judge Robert Whitwell — who attended Ole Miss’s law school — granted an injunction making Chambliss eligible for the 2026 season … for now.
The NCAA can and is expected to appeal the ruling after repeatedly denying Chambliss’ petition and his own appeals for the eligibility waiver.
Hence the asterisk by his name.
But if Chambliss is allowed to play for the Rebels in 2026, he’s absolutely a top Heisman contender after his incredible 2025 season. After winning the Division II national championship at Ferris State in Michigan, Chambliss was an under-the-radar transfer to Ole Miss and opened the season as the backup QB before an injury to starter Austin Simmons thrust him into the spotlight in Week 3.
Chambliss passed for 3,937 yards, 22 TDs and 3 INTs and rushed for 527 yards and 8 scores while leading Ole Miss to the CFP semifinals.
Heisman Trophy Chances For Chambliss Face Some Hurdles
There’s no question about his talent, but there are other questions that cloud his Heisman picture just ever so much.
The first, obviously, is whether Chambliss’ eligibility is upheld through further appeal from the NCAA.
The second is whether Ole Miss’ incredible 2025 success is replicable.
Sure, the Rebels won two playoff games with new coach Pete Golding after Lane Kiffin’s wild departure to LSU. But it remains to be seen what Golding does as a first-time head coach leading a team through a full offseason and season.
Also, rising star offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. stayed on through the playoff run but is now at LSU with Kiffin.
Three of Chambliss’ top four wide receivers from last season are also gone, and while the team brought in some talented transfers in productive Syracuse wideouts Darrell Gill Jr. and Johntay Cook II, it’s nonetheless different.
And the Rebels play a tough schedule with fellow playoff teams Georgia and Oklahoma (on the road), projected top national contender Texas on the road and rejuvenated LSU with Kiffin among other SEC obstacles.
Chambliss is the real deal both in terms of pure arm talent and as a proven big-game player with elite dual-threat ability. Heck, he might indeed be the most talented quarterback on this entire list. But there are too many unknown variables in play to assert at this point that he’s the clear favorite for the Heisman.
4. Notre Dame QB CJ Carr
The other early betting favorite comes in at No. 4 on our list.
Carr was overshadowed a bit as a redshirt freshman in 2025 because running back Jeremiyah Love commanded the spotlight for the Fighting Irish offense and finished as a deserving Heisman finalist.
But Carr was impressive too, completing 66.6% of his passes for 2,741 yards, 24 TDs and 6 INTs (plus 3 rushing TDs) in his debut season.
The knock would be that he wasn’t quite at his best in the biggest games.
He threw a fourth quarter interception in the season-opening 27-24 loss at Miami — the one that ultimately kept the Irish out of the College Football Playoff — but he was 19-of-30 passing for 221 yards and 2 TDs plus a rushing TD in that game and it was his first career start, on the road and against an elite defense.
Carr threw an interception in the subsequent 41-40 loss to Texas A&M that set up a short field and Aggies touchdown in the second quarter, but he was also 20 of 32 for 293 yards and a TD.
Against a ranked USC team at home, he threw for just 136 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT and rushed for a TD in a 34-24 win that was in peril until the Trojans’ self-inflicted second-half miscues.
And in Notre Dame’s other game vs. a ranked opponent, a 37-15 win over Pittsburgh, Carr threw for 212 yards, 2 TDs and a season-high 2 INTs with a rushing TD.
His only 300-yard passing games came against bad Arkansas and NC State defenses.
The point is that making him the preseason Heisman favorite seems a bit … much.
But there are also reasons for it.
Notre Dame is on a vengeance tour after getting snubbed from the playoffs, Carr now has a full year of experience, Love is off to the NFL, and then there’s the biggest reason of all why Carr is viewed as such a strong Heisman contender — the Irish’s schedule.
Notre Dame managed to line up a slate loaded with some of the worst Big Ten and ACC teams from last season — Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford, Boston College and Syracuse — and Rice and Navy (albeit coming off a very good season).
There are a few tough challenges sprinkled in, for sure. The Irish play at BYU and host Miami and SMU.
So one daunting road game, one truly marquee home game and another against a solid SMU team.
If Notre Dame can split its two toughest games, it has an excellent shot at going 11-1, but Carr is going to need to do his part and have some “Heisman moments” along the way. He can’t just ride that favorable schedule to college football’s top honor.
5. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin
Sayin was a Heisman finalist and finished fourth in the voting in his first year as a starter, so it would be hard to put him any lower on this list.
But there are a few factors working against him.
First, he’ll have to top his impressive 2025 stats, as he led the entire FBS in completion percentage (77.0%) and passed for 3,610 yards, 32 TDs and 8 INTs as a redshirt freshman.
Ohio State had a fairly favorable schedule last season, but absolutely does not in 2026 with Texas, Iowa, Indiana and USC on the road and Oregon and Michigan at home.
That’s the reigning national champion Hoosiers, the fellow CFP semifinalist Ducks, a Longhorns team that should be among the preseason favorites to win it all, perennially one of the toughest teams to play on the road with the Hawkeyes, a Trojans team that returns a fellow Heisman candidate at QB in Jayden Maiava and brought in the No. 1-ranked recruiting class and then rival Michigan very possibly rejuvenated by new head coach Kyle Whittingham.
Good luck with that!
And then there is the equally substantial factor that for Sayin to have a huge statistical season that likely means star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith does as well. That would at least split some votes for the two Buckeyes, but there could also be narrative-driven momentum to reward Smith, who has been considered one of the very best players in college football since his true freshman season two years ago.
Ohio State also lost a ton of talent on defense and may simply not be the dominant team it was for most of the last two seasons.
That said, if Sayin does lead the Buckeyes to even a 10-2 mark through that gauntlet and shows the natural growth from having a year of experience, then the strength of schedule becomes one of his biggest allies in the Heisman race.
Other Heisman Trophy Candidates To Watch
As for the most glaring omissions on the list …
Josh Hoover and Dante Moore would be next, but any top 5 requires tough decisions.
As it pertains to 2026 Heisman Trophy consideration, Hoover has the tough challenge of following the last Heisman winner, Mendoza, who was one of the most universally respected players in recent memory by the time Indiana’s national title run was finished. So he’d have to top what Mendoza did in the regular season and have Indiana be elite again despite losing a lot of the core of its championship team.
That said, Hoover is an excellent quarterback who passed for 9,627 yards, 71 TDs and 33 INTs the last three seasons at TCU. If Indiana isn’t quite as dominant next season, he would also have the opportunity to finish out more games (and pile up more stats) than Mendoza did while coming out early in many blowouts. So there is absolutely a Heisman path for Hoover.
Moore, meanwhile, is a great college quarterback who could have been a high NFL draft pick this year had he chose to leave Oregon. It’s harder to see him taking a massive statistical leap, though, as the Ducks will always be heavily committed to the rushing attack under coach Dan Lanning.
Oregon has some tough games on the schedule — at Ohio State, at USC, home vs. Michigan and home vs. Washington — but it could be a lot worse. The Heisman path for Moore is an undefeated regular season and cutting down on his turnovers.
For Jeremiah Smith to win it, he’d have to have a historic season for a wide receiver and big stat lines in those marquee matchups.
Sam Leavitt could make a run at it if LSU is a playoff team in Kiffin’s first season and the dual-threat QB puts up a career-best season in the process.
And Gunner Stockton is a fine quarterback, but it’s hard to see him winning the Heisman Trophy with Georgia’s defense and rushing attack so often more prominent to its success than the passing game.
